40%chance
On regional shipping disruption spilling into the Red Sea/Suez route. Resolves YES if the Suez Canal Authority reports monthly transit tonnage at or above its 2024 average in any month before Dec 31, 2026. Source: Suez Canal Authority.
The fundamentals support a higher probability here.
The volume on this market has been insane lately.
Looking at the data, this could go either way.
This is looking bullish! The momentum is definitely there.
This needs more liquidity. Hard to get good fills.
The recent news should move this significantly.
I think people are overreacting. This won't happen.