Demo mode: simulated data, for showcase onlyDemo mode: simulated data, for showcase onlyDemo mode: simulated data, for showcase onlyThe crowd's implied probability that the Bank of Canada CHANGES its target for the overnight rate at the next scheduled decision — one minus the implied probability of a hold, read off Drazill's BoC rate-decision markets. A gap prints whenever no rate-decision market is live.
Methodology boc-odds-v1 · 0 constituents
Each belief index is a volume-capped weighted mean of its constituent markets’ implied probabilities. Capping each market’s weight prevents any single thin market from dominating the index.
Honest gaps. When a value cannot be computed for a period (for example, no constituent traded), the series records a gap rather than carrying the last value forward — the chart line breaks there instead of interpolating across it.
Versioned restatements. The methodology version (boc-odds-v1) is stamped on every point. If the methodology changes, historical values are restated under a new version rather than silently rewritten.
Full methodology: docs/ml/index-methodology.md.