Belief Indices

A volume-weighted mean of the crowd's implied probability across active Drazill markets tagged to monetary policy, interest rates, and the economy — a single read on how likely the crowd thinks tighter/looser conditions are.

A volume-weighted mean of the crowd's implied probability across active Drazill politics/election markets — a barometer of electoral conviction. Higher values indicate stronger crowd conviction in the favoured outcome. This IS the platform's election index; no separate definition exists.

The crowd's implied probability that the Bank of Canada CHANGES its target for the overnight rate at the next scheduled decision — one minus the implied probability of a hold, read off Drazill's BoC rate-decision markets. A gap prints whenever no rate-decision market is live.

The crowd's implied point estimate for Canada's next all-items CPI year-over-year print, taken as the midpoint-weighted expectation of the implied distribution across Drazill's CPI band-ladder markets. Published as a decimal fraction — a 2.4% nowcast prints as 0.024.