39%chance
On South Sudan's long-delayed vote, currently scheduled for December 2026. Resolves YES if a national presidential election is held in South Sudan before Dec 31, 2026. Source: Reuters, AU.
Just saw the news - this changes everything!
This probability seems too optimistic to me.
What's everyone's thesis here? I'm undecided.
I'm not so sure about this one. The odds seem too high.
Interesting market. Watching closely before making a move.