35%chance
The SNP continues to push for a second independence vote. Resolves YES if the Scottish Government formally announces a date for a second independence referendum before Dec 31, 2026. Source: Scottish Government.
This is looking bullish! The momentum is definitely there.
Been trading prediction markets for years. This is one of the clearest opportunities I've seen.
I think people are overreacting. This won't happen.
Been trading prediction markets for years. This is one of the clearest opportunities I've seen.
This probability seems too optimistic to me.
The fundamentals support a higher probability here.
What's everyone's thesis here? I'm undecided.