38%chance
Will Pierre Poilievre still lead the Conservative Party of Canada on Jan 1, 2027. Resolves YES if Poilievre is CPC leader on that date. Source: Conservative Party of Canada / CBC.
Anyone have insights on the resolution criteria?
Market hasn't caught up to the latest developments yet.
The recent news should move this significantly.
This is my largest position. Very confident.
Market hasn't caught up to the latest developments yet.
Interesting market but I'm staying on the sidelines.
Great analysis in this thread. Thanks everyone.
Adding to my position here. The odds are in our favor.