45%chance
The IMF's adverse scenario put 2026 world growth at 2.5% if the energy shock persists. Resolves YES if the IMF's final 2026 world growth estimate is below 2.5%. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook.
This is my largest position. Very confident.
Interesting market. Watching closely before making a move.
Been tracking this for weeks. The trend is clear.
Disagree with the current pricing. Here's why...
Great analysis in this thread. Thanks everyone.
Historical data suggests these markets tend to overcorrect. Buying the dip.
The volume on this market has been insane lately.
Great entry point at current prices. Loading up!
This needs more liquidity. Hard to get good fills.
Just bought more shares. Feeling confident about this outcome.
The fundamentals support a higher probability here.