75%chance
Cross-strait tensions rose after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit centred on Taiwan arms sales. Resolves YES if China launches a military invasion or declares a formal naval blockade of Taiwan before Dec 31, 2026. Source: AP / Reuters.
Just saw the news - this changes everything!
The recent news should move this significantly.
Great analysis in this thread. Thanks everyone.
Been trading prediction markets for years. This is one of the clearest opportunities I've seen.
Interesting market but I'm staying on the sidelines.
The recent news should move this significantly.
Just saw the news - this changes everything!
Fading this. The smart money is on the other side.
New to this market - what am I missing?
The volume on this market has been insane lately.
Fading this. The smart money is on the other side.
Anyone else think this is overvalued right now?
I'm not so sure about this one. The odds seem too high.