50%chance
Predicts hiring momentum in the back half of the year. Resolves YES if the average monthly nonfarm payroll change for July through December 2026 (per BLS reports released through January 2027) exceeds 125,000. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This probability seems too optimistic to me.
Interesting market. Watching closely before making a move.
Fading this. The smart money is on the other side.
Disagree with the current pricing. Here's why...
The volume on this market has been insane lately.
The fundamentals support a higher probability here.
Interesting market but I'm staying on the sidelines.