59%chance
Oral GLP-1s like orforglipron promise to broaden access. Resolves YES if oral GLP-1 prescriptions exceed injectable GLP-1 prescriptions in any month of 2026 in the US. Source: IQVIA prescription data.
This is looking bullish! The momentum is definitely there.
The fundamentals support a higher probability here.
I'm not so sure about this one. The odds seem too high.
Interesting market but I'm staying on the sidelines.